The  late second President of Kenya,Daniel Arap Moi(left) and his political student President William Ruto…..Photo/IP

By  IP political desk 

NAIROBI, Kenya

 In a political theatre that could easily pass for a Shakespearean tragedy-comedy, Kenya’s modern leaders are apparently taking cues — with some extra annotations — from the dusty notebooks of the 1992 playbook.

Back in 1992, Daniel arap Moi of KANU won the first multiparty presidential election since the one-party era with about 36% of the vote, comfortably ahead of fragmented rivals.

But hold up — though Moi led the field with roughly 1.9 million votes, his three main opponents — Kenneth Matiba, Mwai Kibaki and Jaramogi Oginga Odinga — collectively garnered more than 3 million votes between them.

In other words, the combined opposition had the numbers, but the divide-and-conquer script rewrote the ending.

Fast-forward three decades. A new cast of characters has been following a suspiciously familiar choreography:

William Ruto — once a youthful campaigner for Moi’s Youths for KANU wing — is now president.

Moses Wetang’ula — former nominated MP for KANU,Moi’s legal adviser and deputy speaker (1992-97) — is now Speaker and still legal adviser in the current administration.

Musalia Mudavadi — once finance minister and now arguably a top financial consultant for Ruto  in the Kenya Kwanza government.

Edwin Sifuna — nephew of Lawrence Sifuna a firebrand politician by then (who teamed up with Matiba in ’92) — today works alongside leaders like Uhuru Kenyatta (who was Kenneth Matiba’s personal assistant in 1992)

The similarities are so thick that you’d swear someone photocopied the 1992 election flyer and forgot to update the date.

Political analysts — and kibitzers at street corners — joke that Kenyan politics might just be the longest-running sitcom ever, with plotlines that repeat like a radio stuck on loop: rivalries, alliances, betrayals… and the occasional mentor-mentee plot twist.

And then there’s the “will history repeat itself?” question.

Will Edwin Sifuna, like his uncle, ride a central Kenya friendly party ticket and retain his seat in Nairobi, guided by forces beyond mere coincidence?

Will Ruto, the self-declared former student of Moi’s political doctrine, pull another victory from the jaws of a divided opposition?

That’s the million-shilling question as Kenya approaches its next general elections.

So did Moi win in 1992?

Yes — he won the presidency with a plurality of 36% of votes cast, even though the combined opposition votes exceeded his total — a textbook case of majority opposition, minority winner because of divided challengers.

And now, with Ruto in State House — sometimes referred to affectionately, poetically, or sarcastically as Nyayo Jr. — many Kenyans are wondering:

Is this déjà vu or just another political coincidence? Will it be Moi out -Moi in  — and should we be buying popcorn or filing petitions?

History doesn’t exactly repeat itself… but it sure loves to rhyme.