Babu Owino (above)assured by Dr Oburu Odinga of the Nairobi Gubernatorial ticket
By Alex Wekesa
NAIROBI, Kenya — Oct. 30, 2025
The political tremors sparked by Dr. Oburu Odinga’s assurance to Babu Owino have now spread far beyond Nairobi.
As ODM moves to secure the youthful legislator’s path to the governorship, attention is shifting to a far more consequential question: what will ODM demand in return — and how will this reshape Kenya’s 2027 power structure?
Inside the broad-based coalition government, quiet calculations are underway.
If ODM insists on retaining Nairobi through Babu Owino, could it next demand the Deputy President’s seat in a post-2027 power deal?
ODM’s New Bargaining Position
Dr. Odinga’s pledge to Owino is more than reassurance; it’s a political declaration that ODM intends to reclaim its influence in national power negotiations.
The party views Nairobi as its strongest base — a city that symbolizes its resilience and urban dominance.
By winning the capital, ODM would secure a strategic bargaining chip in the coalition.
Party strategists privately suggest that with the Nairobi seat locked in, ODM could legitimately push for a senior slot on the 2027 presidential ticket — reviving talk of claiming the Deputy President’s position.
However, such a move would ignite new tensions within the coalition, where the Luhya community — buoyed by recent political cohesion — is also eyeing the same seat.
Leaders from Western Kenya, including Speaker Moses Wetang’ula and Prime CS Musalia Mudavadi, have quietly indicated that it is time for their region to occupy the second-highest office in the land.
Gladys Wanga’s National Ambition
Meanwhile, Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga has emerged as one of ODM’s brightest prospects in national politics.
Her strong performance and growing profile position her as a future running mate — or even a presidential candidate in her own right.
Within ODM circles, Wanga is viewed as the bridge between the party’s traditional base and a reform-minded, youthful generation.
If ODM reasserts itself in the coalition, her name could feature prominently in high-level negotiations.
The Luhya Card and Kindiki’s Calculated Silence
The Luhya bloc’s quest for recognition sets up a collision course with ODM’s ambitions — and places Deputy President Kithure Kindiki in a delicate political position.
Kindiki, who rose to the deputy presidency after Rigathi Gachagua’s fallout with President Ruto, has maintained a calm, disciplined style that contrasts sharply with the fiery politics of earlier administrations.
But his future could depend on how Ruto balances the competing demands of ODM, the Luhya community, and his Mount Kenya base.
Political observers say Ruto is now dangling the carrot — offering subtle assurances and symbolic gestures to ensure all three power blocs feel included without destabilizing UDA’s core.
Kindiki’s role as a loyal and low-profile deputy helps Ruto maintain internal stability — for now.
Should coalition politics shift, even his seat might become part of the grand bargaining table.
Nairobi as the Power Lever
If Babu Owino secures the ODM ticket and faces off with UDA’s Johnson Sakaja, Nairobi will once again become the epicenter of Kenya’s political contest.
The race would not just decide who runs City Hall — it would determine who dictates the balance of power in the national coalition.
ODM’s move to back Owino signals that it will no longer be content with symbolic partnership. The party wants tangible power — and control of Nairobi is the entry point.
A Coalition Under Strain
President Ruto’s greatest political test now lies in managing ambition within his own broad-based government.
With ODM re-energized, the Luhya bloc assertive, and Mount Kenya leaders demanding renewed influence, the 2027 race is shaping into a three-front balancing act.
How Ruto handles these pressures — while keeping Deputy President Kindiki firmly by his side — will determine whether the coalition endures or splinters under the weight of its own promises.
For now, all eyes are on Nairobi but in the background, the true battle is already unfolding — for the deputy presidency, regional pride and the soul of the coalition itself.
