By IP Political analyst/Nairobi,Kenya

If politics were chess, President William Ruto would be accused of playing both sides of the board — and occasionally rearranging the pieces when no one is looking.

Let’s begin where the smoke is thickest: ODM.

Inside the Orange house, the Oburu Odinga-aligned old guard and the Edwin Sifuna-flavored resistance brigade are reportedly hammering the last political nails into each other — and possibly into ODM’s once-formidable coffin.

One senior ODM official, speaking anonymously because “we still need our parking slots,” sighed:

“We are not being destroyed from outside. We are helping with the demolition. Others are just supplying the bulldozer fuel.”

Another youth leader allied to the Sifuna camp was less poetic:

“When you see friendly faces smiling as two of your factions fight, know someone is calculating 2027 quietly.”

Ruto, of course, is nowhere in sight. He is simply observing.

Like a man who left matches near dry grass and is now discussing fire safety policy.

The ANC Autopsy

Remember Musalia Mudavadi’s ANC? It entered government robust. It now exists largely in ceremonial memory.

A former ANC strategist remarked:

“We were told we were joining government to strengthen our voice. The voice is there. The microphone belongs to someone else.”

Absorption, not empowerment, appears to be the recurring theme.

Coast: Development as Diplomacy

At the Coast, infrastructure flows generously. Roads, ports, projects — and political recalibration.

A coastal MP confided:

“Development is welcome. But politics is not charity. If we enter government through a coast-based vehicle, it will be for leverage, not surrender.”

ODM’s Nyanza and coastal stalwarts — including Gladys Wanga and Hassan Joho — are watching closely, with each each region rumored to be eyeing the second slot.

The coastline may soon host more than ships; it may host  more development projects and succession negotiations.

Western Kenya: Where Allies Cannibalize Carefully

In Western Kenya, the script grows delightfully complicated.

Ford Kenya insiders whisper that Ken Lusaka, the deputy party leader, is coordinating Ruto’s UDA re-election machinery while critics accuse him of slowly preparing the lion party for what one MP called “a ceremonial handover to UDA.”

A Western caucus legislator said bluntly:

“We cannot sell UDA directly here. It is seen as foreign. That is why some people want to sell it through the back door of our traditional parties.”

Another MP added:

“If you suffocate regional parties, don’t be shocked when the same leaders you weakened become your negotiators from the opposition.”

The fear among top Luhya figures — including Moses Wetang’ula and Mudavadi — is putting all eggs in one Kenya Kwanza basket while Deputy President Prof still Kithure Kindiki consolidates influence at the center.

As one insider put it:

“You don’t survive Western politics by surrendering leverage. You survive by keeping options.”

Meanwhile, in Trans Nzoia, UDA’s steady expansion has reportedly weakened DAPK structures, leaving TAWE Movement leader George Natembeya politically exposed amid litigation and Senate scrutiny.

A local analyst observed:

“When governors struggle with governance optics, they don’t deliver votes. They deliver protest.”

The Brewing Rebellion

The Western MPs caucus is said to be quietly forming a coalition framework — traditional outfits first, negotiations later — designed to bargain for 2027 and even 2032 dominance.

One MP summarized the mood:

“We are not against the President. We are against extinction.”

Another offered a warning:

“If Lusaka consolidates the party without consensus, sabotage will not come from outside. It will come from within.”

And perhaps the most telling quote came from a veteran politician:

“The President’s strategy is clever — weaken your allies so they depend on you. But dependency is not loyalty. It is resentment waiting for election day.”

The Paradox

In the short term, dismantling sister parties from within looks efficient. Encourage friendly rivalries. Absorb strong personalities. Enter strongholds gradually.

But Western Kenya has a long political memory. Regional pride is currency. And suffocation rarely produces gratitude.

By 2027, the President may discover a difficult equation:

Weakened allies cannot bargain.
But resentful allies can unite.

And in Kenyan politics, the quietest rooms often host the loudest revolutions.