ODM leader Raila Amolo Odinga
NAIROBI
With its political capital dwindling and discontent rising among its core base, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is going all out to avoid humiliation in the high-stakes by-elections slated for Nov. 27.
Stung by waning support in its traditional strongholds, the party has deployed senior leaders to the ground in a last-ditch attempt to rally voters, reset its image, and reclaim lost political ground.
The stakes are particularly high after the 2019 mini-polls shocked the establishment—when the then-little-known Movement for Development and Growth (MDG) upset ODM in what was once considered unshakable territory.
Now, ODM is battling a credibility crisis from within.
Much of the current anger is driven by disillusioned Gen Z voters, who accuse party leader Raila Odinga of betrayal after his recent alignment with the Kenya Kwanza administration.
Once hailed as a fearless opposition icon, Raila’s perceived co-optation into the government has left many young voters—especially those who braved the streets during the deadly 2024 Finance Bill protests—feeling abandoned.
“We bled for a cause he once championed. Then he switched sides,” said a 23-year-old protester from Kisumu who lost a friend during the July demonstrations. “We’ll never forget.”
At the heart of ODM’s current challenge is a glaring disconnect between its legacy leadership and a restless, politically awakened youth bloc that feels ignored and expendable.
ODM’s presence in the upcoming mini-elections will be a litmus test of whether the party still holds sway—or if it has already lost the future.
Party insiders acknowledge the urgency.
“This is not just about winning seats,” said a senior ODM strategist familiar with the campaign plans. “It’s about restoring trust and proving that ODM is still the political home for millions.”
The party has dispatched high-profile figures to rally support in contested areas, hold grassroots engagements and counter the growing perception that ODM is no longer the voice of the people. But the message may be coming too late.
Critics say ODM squandered its credibility by failing to stand firmly with protestors and appearing to cozy up to a regime many of its supporters blame for economic hardship and police brutality.
With the ruling Kenya Kwanza coalition pouring resources into these same battlegrounds, ODM faces an uphill task to reclaim its influence and avoid another electoral upset.
As Nov. 27 approaches, it’s more than just a race for seats. It’s a fight for survival—and for the soul of a party teetering on the edge of political irrelevance.
