President Ruto with Speaker Wetang’ula…Photo/IP.
NAIROBI, Kenya
Bungoma’s 2027 gubernatorial race is shaping up to be a referendum on National Assembly Speaker Dr Moses Wetang’ula’s grip on western Kenya politics.
Vote projections showing his influence could either solidify or unravel depending on how his brother Tim Wanyonyi and ally Didmus Barasa position themselves.
Former governor Wycliffe Wangamati’s 137,378 votes from the 2022 election now adrift after his indictment on corruption charges are expected to be the swing bloc that decides the race.
When added to Kenneth Lusaka’s 244,298 pro-Wetang’ula base, the numbers sharply define three possible scenarios.
Wanyonyi, the Westlands MP has already secured endorsements from all nine MPs in Bungoma and 62 county assembly members, raising his profile as the strongest challenger.
However Wetang’ula must decide whether to pull him into Ford-Kenya or rely on Barasa, the Kimilili MP and a loyal foot soldier in President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza coalition.
If Wanyonyi stays in ODM under the Kenya Moja coalition, projections show Barasa, backed by Lusaka’s old base would command about 271,774 votes against Wanyonyi’s 89,296.
Kenya Moja allies like Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, DCP Secretary-General Cleophas Malala and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna would pick up about 20,607 votes.
The outcome: Barasa wins, keeping Bungoma in Kenya Kwanza’s orbit.
If Wanyonyi ditches ODM for Ford-Kenya, Wetang’ula’s family and party forces align into a juggernaut.
Wanyonyi would surge to about 347,332 votes, sweeping Bungoma by a landslide. Barasa would sink to 27,476 while Kenya Moja allies capture a negligible 6,869.
The outcome: Wanyonyi wins big, and Wetang’ula consolidates his western power base.
If Barasa consolidates under Kenya Kwanza, projections show him taking about 319,856 votes with Wanyonyi reduced to 41,213 and Kenya Moja allies holding steady at 20,607.
The outcome: Barasa wins comfortably, but Wanyonyi and his Kenya Moja allies remain disruptive enough to threaten Ford-Kenya’s grassroots stability.
The numbers carry national consequences. Wetang’ula, who commands the Western MPs caucus, is already maneuvering for a role in the 2032 presidential race.
His bargaining strength in 2027 and his ability to deliver Bungoma will determine whether he enters that contest as a regional kingmaker or as a diminished figure battling Natembeya, Malala, and Sifuna for control of western Kenya.
For Wetang’ula, survival as western Kenya’s top power broker depends on one outcome: keeping Bungoma under Ford-Kenya or Kenya Kwanza’s fold.
If Wanyonyi refuses to cross from ODM and Barasa falters, Kenya Moja leaders will have a field day in Bungoma, reshaping the region’s political map and undercutting Wetang’ula’s long-term plan for 2032.
