NAIROBI
If there is one politician who may need to tread carefully heading into 2027, analysts say it is Embakasi East MP Babu Owino.
The youthful MPs political future appears increasingly uncertain as shifting alliances redefine Nairobi’s power map.
Owino, long seen as a youthful, energetic contender for the Nairobi governor’s seat, has recently hinted at stepping outside the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
At one point, he publicly proposed that Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka should succeed President William Ruto — a move that many believed was meant to secure Kalonzo’s future support for Owino’s own gubernatorial ambitions.
However the ground has since shifted. Kalonzo is now in a working political arrangement with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua — a partnership that introduces new layers of complexity for Owino.
Gachagua, viewed by critics as a deeply ethnic mobilizer with a firm grip on Mount Kenya politics, is widely expected to push for a Kikuyu candidate for Nairobi governor.
With Kalonzo’s camp eager to gain nationwide traction ahead of 2027, insiders suggest the Wiper leader is unlikely to overpower Gachagua or insist on a Luo candidate for the city’s top job.
In coalition politics, numbers talk — and Gachagua commands more votes, deeper financial backing and stronger access to wealthy Kikuyu power brokers.
That leverage means Gachagua could impose strict conditions on Kalonzo, including control over Nairobi’s gubernatorial ticket.
Kalonzo’s presidential ambitions may force him to concede, making it unlikely that Babu Owino would feature prominently in their power-sharing equation.
Where does this leave Babu Owino?
Supporters on Facebook, X and other platforms argue that Nairobi voters are less tribal and could embrace Owino even without a major party backing.
However, political history paints a different picture.
No Nairobi governor has ever won the seat without aligning with a dominant party: Evans Kidero rode ODM machinery, Mike Sonko leveraged Jubilee’s massive base and Johnson Sakaja won through UDA and Kenya Kwanza’s citywide appeal.
Despite claims that Nairobi is a “special case,” one fact remains consistent — no candidate has clinched the seat as an independent.
The city’s diversity and size make party structures, financing and national alliances crucial.
If Owino miscalculates his next steps, analysts warn he risks being pushed to the political margins just as the 2027 race intensifies.
Whether he stays in ODM, negotiates new ground or goes solo, his survival may hinge on how he positions himself before coalition deals harden and Nairobi’s political deck is reshuffled once again.
